I often try to predict new features before product launches and developer conferences such as last year’s PDC, the iPad2 launch, the Google I/O conference, Apple’s WWDC keynote, Amazon Fire announcement, and Microsoft’s Build conference last month. These predictions are based on rumors, leaks, and an overall assessment of a company’s product strategy. Then, I assess my performance against actual announcements. These previous predictions would have made good blog material.
Apple’s launch of the iPhone 5 or 4S (or both) is just 10 hours away. Here is my try for the iPhone 5 launch, but first some preliminaries.
Background
This year has been very secretive with Apple delaying announcement of new iOS features by two to three months and by shifting the calendar for the iPhone launch to give less time for the competition to match, respond, or neutralize Apple advantages as in year’s past. The new features that were announced were mostly competitive response (notifications, i-messaging) or new business avenues such as subscriptions, though some like iCloud represent a major strategic milestone for the company. The iOS announcement was underwhelming given expectations for truly new innovations. Apple, given its secretive nature, likely reserved the most important announcements for the actual launch so as not tip its hand too early.
Google has also become very secretive with new features in upcoming Android versions. The announcements at Google I/O centered around competitive response such as matching Apple’s content prowess with Google Movies and Google Music, expanding the hardware ecosystem (Google @ Home and Google open accessory) against AirPlay and AirPrint, and getting hardware manufacturers to issue timely software updates. Google will be formally announcing the next version of Android next week.
Meanwhile, Microsoft’s own plan to bring Windows Phone into parity has come into fruition (no pun intended) with the recently released Mango, version 7.5 of the operating system. Unfortunately, for Microsoft, Google and Apple have yet to release their cards and they may still announce game-changing advances.
I fully suspected a year ago the convergence of Windows Phone 8 and Windows 8. Convergence implied that the Windows 8 would be ported to ARM, that Windows would incorporate the Metro interface, and that a future version of Windows Phone would abandon the Window CE and run on top of the Windows 8 codebase. My reasoning was based on the branding of the Windows Phone, the restriction of Windows Phone to managed libraries (Silverlight and XNA) which may not have to be recompiled to run on desktop Window, and later the version numbering (7.5) of Mango (Mango is substantial enough that it should really have been a full version number upgrade—much more so than with previous versions of Window Mobile). I was taken aback by new editions of the Windows Mobile/Embedded in summer of 2010, but the announcement of Windows being ported to ARM and Sinofsky’s “System on a Chip” presentation at CES charting the rapid advances in mobile hardware in memory and processor speed towards eventual parity with desktop systems all but confirmed my view.
It makes sense strategy. Mobile operating systems were becoming increasingly competitive and posing a threat to Windows. Having two separate operating systems, one for mobile and one for desktop, is wasteful, splitting resources and duplicating efforts. The Windows CE experiment resulted in APIs that were incomplete and inconsistent with that of the full Windows; in .NET CE, for example, the garbage collector uses a different algorithm and only a tiny subset of the graphics capabilities of Windows are supported (gradients and transforms fail). With one OS, Windows Phone will always have the full functionality that Windows offers.
The recent unveiling of Microsoft Windows 8 tablet strategy potentially represents a change in Microsoft fortunes in mobile computing. Windows 8 offers a no-compromise hybrid solution featuring the Metro and classic Windows interfaces, which seem to offer a compelling value proposition that Google (and possibly Apple) won’t be able to defend against. However, it is important to note that both Android and iOS are forked from serious, proven desktop operating systems—Linux and Mac OS X, respectively—and both companies develop Office-compatible desktop applications. Apple has already begun converging the user interface with Mac OS X “Lion” and could be converging the underlying OS for a hybrid tablet/laptop solution as well; there are rumors of an ARM based version of a future Mac laptop, and iPhone applications already run in an x86-based iPhone simulator. Likewise, Google is seeking to converge Chrome OS with Android, though there is still the possibility of using a traditional Linux desktop or a 3D desktop interface from the BumpTop acquisition.
Predictions:
In making my predictions, I generally follow this path.
First, I take into account the product development cycle. Features are selected and specified early in the product cycle, then scheduled, developed and later tested before going out to beta and eventually being released. This means that new features are most likely designed based on the competitive market landscape at the time of the last product launch. Thus, it is dangerous for a product cycle to be too long in a fast-moving market. The new features in iOS3 addressed a number of features in Blackberry such as cut-and-paste and unified inboxes, but ignored multitasking support offered by Palm and Droids. iOS4 later added multitasking.
Second, I take into account the company’s DNA and strategy. Microsoft spends $9 billion in R&D, Google spends half as much as Microsoft (about $4 billion), and Apple spends half as much as Google (about $2 billion). Microsoft is spread thin over a variety of products, but not as much as before. Its product cycles are too long. Both Google and Apple have fewer products to spread the wealth through. Part of Google’s speed and efficiency extends to its reliance on open source. Google doesn’t sell products, just advertising, so it has less exposure to copyright infringement. Another part may be due to its web-based applications, which have fewer deployment issues. Apple is very focused. Its efficiencies stem from using open source for some products like Safari, vertical integration between software and hardware (to reduce testing costs), and ready abandonment of legacy technologies. Apple also migrates technologies back and forth between iOS and Mac OS such as a common subset of the operating system. I think we will see gesture-based home buttons for instance. Apple is extraordinarily efficient with its R&D dollars. It doesn’t waste dollars on low-value features and it’s always looking for new business models (advertisings, content stores, subscriptions, hardware).
Third, I look at acquisitions and other actions to decipher (“read between the lines”) the company’s strategy. For instance, branding WP7 with the “Windows” name only make sense in a convergence strategy. If an action doesn’t make sense, it’s probably because the company’s strategy has not been revealed, or the company is buying time after a major product delay.
Fourth, I also look at rumors and leaks.
Here are my predictions:
It is widely reported that the carriers are AT&T, Verizon and Sprint. T-Mobile is left out. The hardware is redesigned with a larger, 8MP camera, edge-to-edge display, thinner profile, tapered edges, world phone, and faster chips. NFC is likely; I don’t imagine it being difficult to add. A Blackberry-like LED notification light is also suggested by an iOS setting. LTE may still be in waiting, though there has been some evidence of its arrival with LTE equipment at Apple stores and it could very well have been the cause of the iPhone delay. iCloud will be another star in the announcement.
Voice Assistant. This is based on speech recognition technology licensed from Nuance with the additional capabilities from the SiRi acquisition in April 2010. This will include dictation and voice control. Some rumors indicate a dialogue and the ability to perform searches around local activities.
Home Button Gestures. The use of an oval capacitive home button is wildly reported. The oblong button is probably for multitouch gesture support (primarily sliding) because the existing home button is already overloaded for many functions. It would combat the perceived advantage of multi-button Android and Windows Phone devices. It would offer unlimited functionality through the home button while retain the simplicity of one button. The edge-to-edge display prevents the use of the bezel gestures. A gesture-based home button is an example of Apple reusing a feature from its other touch-based input devices (trackpads, mice).
FaceBook integration. When iOS 5 was announced with Twitter integration, it was widely assumed this was due to a feud between the two companies. FaceBook integration could have been so important that it was help up for the launch to build excitement. Twitter and FaceBook integration had been leaked a year earlier. The Twitter-only announcement might have allowed for developer testing, and the actual integration of both FaceBook and Twitter may be more comprehensive a la Windows Phone. (Reportedly, the FaceBook iPad app is being held up for the Apple announcement.)
Face Recognition. Face recognition could be used for authentication and photo-tagging. Apple acquired Polar Rose earlier for its face recognition technology, which has probably seen use already in Apple’s iPad app, Photo Booth.
Camera. The camera application in iOS 5 already introduces a number of new features. The camera is reported to play a major part of the announcement. There have also been leaks about support for panoramic photos. My own hope is that the Camera uses gyroscopes for image stabilization and image deblurring. I think gyroscopes have been used for the high dynamic range shots in iOS 4.1, since multiple snapshots have to be coordinated spatially, but theoretically gyroscopes could extend the effective megapixels and zoom level of a camera by utilizing multiple shots. I investigated creating a camera app that used the gyroscopes to create a better binocular application.
Mapping. Mapping advances were notably absent from the improvements to iOS5 in the developer conference last April except for the addition of printing to the Maps applications and some notable API support such as geocoding. There have earlier been rumors of new turn-by-turn technology and Apple’s statement after the geolocation privacy fracas mentioned the crowdsourcing of traffic data in the indefinite future. The statement was unusual as Apple typically prefers not to mention features too early. Apple acquired PlaceBase in summer of 2009 and has been hiring software engineers to bring its mapping technology “to the next level” since 2009; the results of these efforts have yet to be realized. On the other hand, Apple might not improve Maps as Apple extended a license agreement with Google in June.
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